A Guide to Measuring Hot and Cold Progressive Jackpots

Find out how to measure hot and cold jackpots

Content Writer, Vladimir

Last updated on 17th August 2022

Published: 29/04/2020

Categories: News, Guides, Jackpots and Slots Guides

Is it possible to detect when a progressive jackpot could drop?

It’s safe to say that all of us have felt our bellies flutter at the thought of becoming India’s next crorepati.

Especially when you hear that online jackpot games have paid out up to 150 crores in the past.

So is there any merit to chasing ‘hot’ jackpots?

Some Indians believe that it’s the only way to play.

Others believe the theory behind ‘hot’ jackpots is a waste of time.

Whatever your opinion, it can be beneficial to study the patterns of previous big jackpot hits to increase your chances of winning.

This guide will cover the tips I use when chasing a big jackpot win in hopes of becoming India’s next crorepati. So let’s get down to it, shall we?

How to measure hot and cold jackpots

I’ve been to a few land-based casinos in Goa. And while I enjoyed the live casino tables – hitting the slots was always inevitable.

A method I noticed many hopeful punters using to detect a hot slot was whether or not the machine offers prizes within the first 10 or so spins. If no wins, they would move on to the next slot machine.

While some gamblers favour this method, I’m thankful that I can use online tools.

I’ve explained how to find a hot jackpot slot in a few points below.

Search online for the last big win

Firstly, it’s important to check the last time that a jackpot was paid out.

I do this by using a jackpot checker online. You can easily find one by Googling “jackpot tracker”.

These nifty tools will be your best friends in this process!

Example time

Using the jackpot checker, I searched for the last time my favourite jackpot dropped.

  • Microgaming’s Mega Moolah paid out 6 weeks ago.
  • Yggdrasil’s Joker Millions paid out 17 weeks ago.
  • Red Tiger Gaming’s Reel King Mega paid out 2 years and 2 weeks ago.

From this, I can see that Mega Moolah and Joker Millions were recently hit which may mean that they are frequent paying jackpots.

Remember that this is step one in the process and there are other factors to consider below. And although Reel King Mega hasn’t been hit in a while, there’s nothing stopping it from doing so soon and becoming a hot slot.

Check the average time between wins

This is the most important step so listen up friends!

You’re now going to check the average time between payouts.

Example time

  • Microgaming’s Major Millions pays every 6 weeks on average.
  • Blueprint’s Genie Jackpots pays every 23 weeks on average.
  • Playtech’s Wild Viking pays out every 5 years and 8 weeks on average.

From this, you can see that Major Millions and Genie Jackpots have the best average time between big wins.

This gives you a rough idea of how often the jackpot drops. Knowing this information guides you to the best time on average to play – thus, improving your odds of winning.

Analyse the average payout size vs time

It’s easier for all of us to start this point with a formulated example.


Jackpot size divided by average time between wins = Average jackpot value per week

As you can imagine, the deal with progressive jackpots is that they don’t drop very often – hence why the soar to such high numbers. Jackpot Giant, for example, currently has a pot of over ₹300,000,000 but it also drops, on average, every 60 weeks.

Gold Mega, on the other hand, has a much lower (albeit still a nice amount to win!) ₹67,500,000 jackpot prize, but pays out every 9 weeks on average.

See the difference in time here?

This is exactly why you should compare the prize pool to its average payout time. Let’s have a look at an example:

  • Jackpot Giant: ₹312,803,077.75 divided by 52 weeks =  ₹‭5,213,384.62 per week
  • Arabian Nights: ₹123,770,855.74 divided by 11 weeks =  ₹11,251,895.98 per week
  • Gold Mega: ₹67,552,963.50 divided by 9 weeks =  ₹7,505,884.83 per week

So, you might initially think that Jackpot Giant is the best option here. But, by breaking it down into its “weekly value”, you can actually see that Arabian Nights offers the most value.

Why exactly? Because it, theoretically, pays out a nice ₹11,251,895.98 per week, while Jackpot Giant sums in at a much lower figure of ₹5,213,384.62 per week.

So, what can you take from all of this? That depends really.

Some people like to go for the big fish, but they have to wait a while before they bite. Others like to catch a lot of the smaller ones.

Typically, an approach that takes both into account is the best.

Common progressive jackpot myths

Throughout my years of playing with casinos both online and offline, I’ve heard more myths than hot tips.

However, It’s important to be aware of these myths so you can address any counter-argument that’s happening in your head with logic.

Take a look at the most common myths surrounding jackpot slots below.

Progressive jackpot slots become ‘cold’ after a big win

You’ll hear this one a lot, especially if you’ve been on the gambling scene a while now and usually coming from the mouth of an amateur. Don’t believe it!

Experienced casino gamblers know that every outcome of a spin is completely random because of random number generators. And these programmes are not prompted, they are computerised to go through millions of number combinations and produce a winner.

Although I mentioned above that you can track the average time between payouts, this is merely so you have an idea of how often on average that big jackpots are hit so you can aim to play more around this time.

There’s nothing to suggest that a jackpot can’t drop the day after a big win.

A good example of this is when Microgaming’s Mega Moolah dropped twice within a 30-hour time span. This happened in 2019 with the first winner claiming an astonishing €11.5 million on the 5th of March and the second lucky winner claiming €2.2 million on the 6th of March.

You have to place a maximum bet for each spin

It’s a common misconception that you have to bet the maximum coin to hit a progressive jackpot. How does that saying go? Go big or go home!

Whereas in reality, it’s not always the case. Take the example of the UK player who won ₹255,182,923.66 on a ₹585 spin. Although this spin was a slightly higher amount than necessary, there’s plenty of examples online of punters winning from a spin valued less than 80 rupees.

That said, there are some jackpot games that do require a minimum bet per line so always check the game’s info section before playing if you’re unsure.

Hot slots will pay out wins more frequently

Just because a slot is considered ‘hot’, it doesn’t mean it pays out more. In fact, progressive jackpot prizes are often smaller and less frequent because they have to make up for the high amount offered in the top prize.

If you wish to find games that payout more often, you should consider the volatility of casino games that you choose.

Low volatility slots will usually pay more often but offer a smaller prize amount. An example of this is If you win an average of say 20 payouts per 100 spins. A classic game with this feature is Starburst.

Whereas, with high volatility slots, you may experience long periods of no wins but with a chance to receive a higher amount.

Jackpot results are based on programmed odds

Understanding how progressive slots work is generally a shortcoming of many gamblers.

Many choose to believe in magical thinking instead of investigating the mechanics behind how these machines work because they believe it’s complicated with conspiracies.

In all actuality, slot machines work in a straightforward way.

To make sure that you don’t make this mistake, I’ve listed some features of the humble slot machine below that you should keep in mind.

The exact outcome cannot be predicted

Some of the methods used to detect hot and cold jackpots can be useful. However, the exact outcome cannot be predicted 100%.

Don’t fall for myths about Gurus that can predict the future. Because if they could, don’t you think everybody would be rich?

Random number generators

If you’re playing with a legitimate online casino, they will have a Random Number Generator(RNG) in place. This ensures every spin is random.

Not only is this a feature of most slot games but it’s required by their licence and regulated by a third party, which we at G2G emphasise on when reviewing and suggesting casinos online.

The value increases with the jackpot prize amount

After a jackpot is won, game providers will reseed the game to keep players’ interest high.

Once the game is reseeded, the return to player(RTP) goes back to a base level which continues to grow as the jackpot increases. For example, NetEnt’s Arabian Nights has a 95.2% base RTP.

Get the best progressive jackpot tips from Guide2Gambling

To make a long story short, detecting what’s hot and what’s not can take a little time and is never guaranteed a win.

But by using the tips that I’ve given you above, it should certainly help you to get an overall idea of how the slot machines work and a logical strategy to put in place the next time you chase a jackpot.

The G2G team and I regularly check the temperature of many jackpots and operators. So if you feel like it’s too much effort to go through this yourself, be sure to check back with us monthly for our update.


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